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Dynamics

Dynamics

Work group on time trends / incidence

Kaplan Meyer and Cox Regression models were used to estimate the latency time between first drug use and first treatment. The group will apply a Back-Calculation Model to estimate the incidence of problem drug use from the observed incidence in treatment, using the latency time. Latency time was remarkably similar in Amsterdam, London and Rome (on average between 6 and 8 years). However, this depended strongly on age at first drug use, latency time being longer in drug users who started at a younger age. This has important consequences for treatment centres, which might not be reaching young drug users sufficiently. Incidence curves were also estimated in the three cities, showing important differences in the dynamic of the drug use epidemic. The work is currently being extended to more sites, and will include sensitivity analyses and methodological improvements.

Coordinator:

Carla Rossi
University of Rome - Tor Vergata
Dipartimento Di Matematica
Via Ricerca Scientifica
I - 00133 Roma
Italy
Email: rossi@axp.mat.uniroma2.it

Participants: Catherine Comiskey (Ireland)
Matthew Hickman (United Kingdom)
Erik Van Ameijden (The Netherlands)
Jorge Ribeiro (Portugal)
Denise Walckiers (Belgium)

Work group on geographic spread

A preliminary Model of Geographic Spread was developed based on the observation that macro spread of drug use may behave similar to infectious diseases (using 'infection rates' between cities and towns). Group 2b estimated and mapped the most likely spread of peak incidence of problem drug use in the Glasgow area. Examples were shown of how the interpretation of mapped data could depend of the way the data is represented, e.g. as crude rates, rate ratios or rather the statistical significance of these. Also maps were developed showing the increase over time of people entering drugs treatment in the different Italian provinces, suggesting that spread of problem drug use followed international trade routes.

Co-ordinator:

Martin Frischer
University of Keele
Department of Medicines Management
UK - Staffordshire ST5 5BG
United Kingdom
Email: pya18@cc.keele.ac.uk

Participants:

Heath Heatlie (United Kingdom)
Carla Rossi (Italy)
Catherine Comiskey (Ireland)
Matthew Hickman (United Kingdom)
Gordon Hay (United Kingdom)
Alojz Nociar (Slovakia)
Jaap Toet (Netherlands)
Ken Field (United Kingdom)

About the EMCDDA

The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) is the reference point on drugs and drug addiction information in Europe. Inaugurated in Lisbon in 1995, it is one of the EU's decentralised agencies. Read more >>

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Page last updated: Wednesday, 29 March 2006