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Work group on national level prevalence estimation

This workgroup is developing the Multivariate Indicator Method. This is a promising tool which might result in more comparable national or regional prevalence estimates of problem drug use. It is based on a model combining data on "indicators" of drug use (e.g. drug-related deaths, drug seizures, convictions for drug offences, treatment for drug misuse) from all areas in a country and information on drug use prevalence that is available only in a few areas ("anchor points"). The statistical methods for obtaining estimates are either linear regression or principal component analysis. During 1999, this work group has produced preliminary national estimates of problem drug use for Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and Ireland.


Ludwig Kraus
IFT - Institute for Therapy Research
Parzivalstr. 25
D - 80804 München
Email: Kraus@ift.isar.de

Participants: Catherine Comiskey (Ireland)
Fabio Mariani (Italy)
Carla Rossi (Italy)
Alfred Uhl (Austria)
Martin Frischer (United Kingdom)
Antonia Domingo (Spain)

Work group on local level prevalence estimation

This work group is further developing Capture-Recapture techniques for prevalence estimation at local level. Truncated Poisson Regression is a one-sample version of the Capture-Recapture method that could much facilitate local prevalence estimates as only one sample of data is needed. However, some assumptions have to be tested more extensively. Novel uses of the 2- or 3-sample Capture-Recapture Method have also been investigated such as using different time periods within one data source, correcting for geographical variation in the data, and applying a Bayesian approach to the loglinear modelling. This work has resulted in preliminary local prevalence estimates for Aberdeen and Helsinki (drug users) and Utrecht (homeless) during 1999.


Gordon Hay
University of Glasgow
Centre for Drug Misuse Research
11 The Square
UK - Glasgow G12 8QQ
United Kingdom
Email: gkua24@udcf.gla.ac.uk

Participants: Marcel Buster (The Netherlands)
Catherine Comiskey (Ireland)
Antonia Domingo (Spain)
Paivi Partanen (Finland)
Filip Smit (The Netherlands)
Alfred Uhl (Austria)

About the EMCDDA

The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA) is the reference point on drugs and drug addiction information in Europe. Inaugurated in Lisbon in 1995, it is one of the EU's decentralised agencies. Read more >>

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Page last updated: Wednesday, 29 March 2006